Cam Rising's Middle Finger
It might be the key to the game. Also, a look back on ASU's victory over Kansas, Big 12 Power Rankings, and the matchup preview with Utah.
Kansas and Eckel Review
Let’s start by reviewing the Kansas game a little bit. Last week, I talked about how ASU had struggled to convert productive drives into points, and how just a small improvement in that could yield big results, since they were so good at generating productive drives. Prior to the game against Kansas, ASU was 113th in FBS in Points/Eckel (see last week’s post if you need a refresher on what Eckel is) at 2.89. They were 14th in FBS in Eckel Rate at 57.8%
Against Kansas, they improved upon both numbers. Out of 10 possessions, 7 reached Kansas’s 40 (70%), and 35 points were scored on the 7 productive drives (5.0 Pts/Eckel). If ASU were able to maintain that Pts/Eckel of 5.0 over the course of the season, it would place them in the top-10 in FBS, so it was a solid performance, and a key to the game, as ASU needed all 35 of those points.
Post-Week 6 Big 12 Power Rankings
Iowa State
BYU
Texas Tech
Kansas State
ASU
Colorado
Utah
West Virginia
Cincinnati
UofA
UCF
Houston
TCU
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Kansas
As a reminder, this is purely resume-based, and is not a prediction of how the conference standings will finish or who the best teams are.
I have no idea who the best team in the Big 12 is, and I don’t think anyone else does, either. Oklahoma State, Kansas, and TCU have been incredibly disappointing, while Iowa State, BYU and Texas Tech are surprisingly good, at least for now.
The rest of the Big 12 season is going to be wild. The vast majority of remaining conference games are projected to be 1-possession contests (from Kelley Ford on X.com):
14 of the 16 Big 12 teams have at least 5 1-possession games remaining. Hold on to your butts. Even though we’re almost halfway into the season, the Power Rankings could still see some wild shifts in the future.
Utah Preview
Once again, here’s the matchup preview from College Football Insiders:
This model REALLY likes ASU, as it has them as 5.5-point favorites with a 66% chance of victory. In contrast, Vegas has Utah by 6 (almost a 12-point difference!) and SP+ has Utah by 6.5.
Utah’s defense is as expected - stout overall without any glaring weaknesses. Tough against the run, but even better against the pass, and they get stops and force offenses off the field. They defend well on early downs, forcing teams into third-and-long situations, and as a result, are successful defending late downs as well. Their defense and special teams are good enough that, despite the offense’s struggles, they’re still able to control field position.
Offense has been where they’ve struggled this year (all the red on their offense’s graphic above is glaring). For most of the season, they’ve had a true freshman (Isaac Wilson) playing QB, as Cam Rising went down with an injury in the second game. The lack of experience at QB shows, too. They are one of the worst teams in the nation in converting 3rd and 4th downs, and at finishing drives (119th and 117th in FBS, respectively).
If Isaac Wilson starts for Utah on Friday, ASU could certainly take advantage of these weaknesses and come away with an upset (at least by Vegas’ standards). Cam Rising being able to start could throw a wrench in that, though. His presence would certainly have an impact, especially on Utah’s efficiency in important situations.
Rising’s availability has been shrouded in mystery for weeks, though. Rising was supposedly a game time decision in each of the last two games, and Utah coach Kyle Whittingham says he doesn’t know if he’ll be able to go on Friday, either. No one really knows what the injury is specifically, either. It was reported that it was a cut on a finger on his throwing hand, but there are rumors that it’s actually dislocated or broken fingers. A picture floated around on X.com last week of his two middle fingers on his right hand in hard plastic splints.
To wrap up, I’ll leave you with one of my favorite tweets about Rising’s injuries:
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