Early Thoughts on the Season and Big 12 Power Rankings

I had almost forgotten what it was like for ASU Football to actually be competitive

ASU has started the season 2-0, with a dominant win over Wyoming and their first win against an SEC opponent in Mississippi State. While beating Wyoming wasn’t that surprising, the nature of the victory was. ASU completely shut down the Cowboy’s offense and the game was never close. Against Mississippi State, ASU got out to a 30-3 lead, then hung on to win 30-23.

Prior to the season, I thought ASU’s most likely record was 5-7. The first two performances have pushed that up to 7-5. ASU is has looked better than I thought they would, and a handful of Big 12 teams have looked worse.

Defense

To me, the defense has been the biggest factor in the improvement. The talent level of the starters on that side of the ball is improved, as well as the depth, especially on the d-line, at linebacker, and at safety. The run defense has been phenomenal, and they’ve been able to pressure the quarterback and force turnovers. They haven’t been tested too much through the air, but the pass defense has been good as well. If the defense continues to play at a top-40 level, there won’t be very many games ASU doesn’t have a change to win.

Offense

The offense, which was a complete mess last year, mostly due to injuries, looks better as well. The o-line is better and deeper, the WR group seems solid, the RB group is super-deep, and as long as Sam Leavitt stays healthy, QB play seems like it will be solid, even though there’s sure to be some ups and downs due to having a freshman at the position.

Leavitt has looked mostly good through two games. He doesn’t make bad decisions or put the ball in jeopardy and he’s super athletic and elusive as a runner. He has struggled with his accuracy at times, but I think that will get better as he gets more comfortable in the offense and things start to slow down for him.

Big 12 Power Rankings

I’m going to try to do weekly power rankings. If you follow me on X.com, you’ve seen the first two editions already. My rankings are purely resume-based, which I think is a fun way to do it early in the season, as that method can look a lot different from a ranking of who the best teams are. Eventually, there’s enough data that the weirdness gets washed out of the resume-based method, though.

1. Iowa State - they haven’t looked like world-beaters, but they have a road victory over a ranked Power 4 opponent, which no other team in the conference has.

2. ASU - A dominant win over an FBS opponent and a solid victory over an SEC program puts the Sun Devils near the top.

3. Utah - I don’t think either of their first two opponents are very good, but they’ve won pretty convincingly.

4. Oklahoma State - I’m not sure how good they are, but a win over an SEC program is something.

5. Kansas State - A win over an FCS opponent, and a close road win over a G5 opponent are fine.

6. BYU - Won at SMU as 10-pt underdogs.

7. UCF - Two blowout wins against teams that probably aren’t very good.

8. UofA - Gave up almost 500 yards and 39 points to New Mexico and was down at halftime to NAU. Their 2-0 record is not impressive at all.

9. TCU - Struggled with Stanford and blew out an FCS team. Also not impressive.

10. Kansas - Lost at Illinois, probably the best of the teams with a loss.

11. West Virginia - Lost at Penn State and beat an FCS team. Meh.

12. Baylor - Beat an FCS team, then was getting handled by Utah until Cam Rising left the game.

13. Cincinnati - Lost to Pitt at home and then beat an FCS team. I would probably put them above Baylor now, but I already published this on X, so it stays this way.

14. Colorado - I’m happily watching Coach Prime’s program self-destruct.

15. Texas Tech - Needed OT to beat an FCS team, then lost to Washington State by three touchdowns. They look terrible so far.

16. Houston - Got pounded by a G5 team, then inexplicably almost beat Oklahoma. CFB is weird.

For informational purposes, here’s how I would project the conference standings to finish:

1. Utah

2. Kansas State

3. Oklahoma State

4. Iowa State

5. UCF

6. Kansas

7. ASU

8. UofA

9. BYU

10. TCU

11. West Virginia

12. Texas Tech

13. Baylor

14. Cincinnati

15. Colorado

16. Houston

Texas State

ASU is at Texas State on Thursday night. This is first time I can recall ASU playing on such a short week. All the other Thursday games ASU has played in were either to start the season or after an off week, to my knowledge.

DirecTV and Disney are still feuding, and ESPN is currently blacked out on the service. If you are a DirecTV customer and are planning on watching the game on TV, you should probably sign up for a live TV streaming service. DirecTV is offering credits if you sign up for Sling or Fubo. I imagine you have to commit to staying with DirecTV to get the credits. If you’re interested in moving to a streaming option permanently, YouTubeTV is my recommendation. The only downside would be that if you’re an AZ resident, it doesn’t carry the local channels that air Suns and Diamondbacks games. If you’re not an AZ resident, you can’t get those channels anyway.

As of Tuesday afternoon, ASU is favored by 1.5 points over Texas State. TSU has been an FBS program since 2012, and 2023 was the first time they ever reached a bowl and their second season with a winning record. SP+ has them ranked at 73, 11 spots below ASU, and 2.9 points worse. Given the 2.5-point advantage SP+ gives the home team, it has ASU as only half-point favorites.

SP+ phases out preseason data very slowly, so is underrating ASU at this point in my opinion. I think the Sun Devils will win by a touchdown or more. 31-17 or something like that.

FYI, College Football Insiders has ASU as 7-point favorites with a 70% chance of winning with an implied score of 33-26:

The full advanced stats preview can be found here.

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